So this has been quite a week for politics in Tennessee. First, news broke that long-serving West Tennessee congressman John Tanner would not seek re-election in 2010. Almost immediately after that announcement, state senator Roy Herron, who had been doing quite well seeking the Democratic gubernatorial primary nod, announced that he would instead seek the Democratic congressional primary nod in the 8th congressional district. A day later, Ward Cammack announces his withdrawal from the Democratic gubernatorial contest, reducing the number of announced candidates from 5 to 3.

Let’s play political pick up sticks:

Congressman Roy Herron
The first big question is: Why did Roy Herron switch races? Based on the political winds blowing in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen’s unprecedented 95-county sweep was an anomaly unlikely to be repeated by a Democrat for a generation or more (or, probably, any politician). A statewide win for a Democrat in a mid-term election year likely to favor, at least congressionally, the party in opposition to the President would be a hard-fought coup. Especially looking at the fundraising breakdown by party. So for Herron, winning the governor’s mansion, even should he win the Democratic primary, would be difficult. But let’s say that he is, in fact, the frontrunner in Tennessee’s fightin’ 8th. How could he possibly hold the seat as a freshman congressman after the Republican-controlled General Assembly redraws the districts to transform our 5-4 Democratic-majority congressional delegation to a likely 7-2 Republican-majority congressional delegation?

Possible answers:

  • Herron had polling showing that there was no way in hell a Democrat could win the governor’s race, or possibly that he in particular had no way in hell of beating a generic Republican.
  • Herron had polling showing that, actually, despite his public organizing prowess, he was getting thumped in terms of the Democratic primary.
  • Herron had polling showing that he had wanted that congressional seat ever since he was a little boy.
  • Herron somehow wound up in a deal with friends on the other side of the aisle whereby his district wouldn’t get too badly redrawn, giving him a fighting chance of keeping the seat for a decade.
  • Herron had polling from before any other race that demonstrated that his state senate seat was no safer than Tanner’s congressional seat or he knows that he would’ve drawn a stronger challenger than Fincher for his own seat.

Honestly, I can’t see how a long-term view that suggests that less than a single term could possibly be appealing to a state senator in a seat that is assumed to be safe. Is 2 years in Congress better than 4 (or) more years in the state senate? Can Herron somehow become a rare Tanner-like figure who is a legendary Southern Democrat perceived as independent-minded and authentic in a mostly rural part of the state? We probably won’t know the answer till 2012, should Herron best Stephen Fincher, darling of the NRCC. Regardless, I fully expect Herron to emerge as the Democratic frontrunner, even if other Democrats (not named Lowe Finney) emerge to fight in a primary.

Side bet for political poker players: Did Herron and McWherter discuss the Tanner seat? Did each prefer the race he’s now conclusively in? I.e., Herron preferred the Tanner race and McWherter preferred the gubernatorial race?

The Governor’s Club
Herron’s departure lets the other son of Dresden, Mike McWherter, shore up his Northwest Tennessee base. Some have suggested that it advantages Jim Kyle, too, but I don’t see that. The big question will be the fight among all three of McWherter, Kyle, and McMillan for Middle Tennessee supporters, where Herron had a broad base of support, and McWherter just fired a loud opening shot.

Cammack’s departure… well, it’s unlikely to have a meaningful impact. Unless, I suppose, one of the remaining three finds a way to extend Bredesen’s legacy in making Tennessee a green technology center and generally becoming a green policy technocratic candidate.

I hadn’t predicted that the Democratic primary would’ve been particularly brutal with 5 candidates, at least nowhere nearly as brutal as the Republican primary has been and will be. And that’s in part because the Republicans feel the need to perpetually seek Truth in Conservatism, whereas the Democrats have presented as relatively un-bold pragmatists, with frontrunners McWherter (gays) and Herron (God, guns) anchoring some socially conservative points but otherwise generally hoping their ability to connect with a base was likely to determine a winner. I shudder, actually, to think what the general election might look like without Herron, as he was a forceful floor speaker who was probably the most unafraid to take on progressive causes strategically and with charisma. Kyle has no problem on the attack (“Kurita.” “Who?”), so that might be fun, but I’m still waiting for a grand populist (or otherwise) outburst from one of the Democratic contenders that makes running for governor as a Democrat seem like it’s not only fun but also the right thing to do. Otherwise, Bill Haslam, coasting calmly above the wingnut fray, will likely resonate more genuinely with Tennessee voters angling for another Bredesen (a pragmatic administrator coming from a recent background of municipal executive experience) and not disrupt my original prophecy.

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We’re still a ways off from the 2010 partisan primaries for the gubernatorial race in Tennessee, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t walk through the stables and size up what the horserace will look like.

For today, I’m going to size up the Democratic field. We’ll know the final field in April, when filing forms are due, but right now we have 5 announced Democratic candidates:

There they are in alphabetical order. Now I’m going to review the campaigns in likelihood of primary victory, from least to greatest.

Ward Cammack got an early start and seemed to impress several progressive politicos with his technocratic attention to green issues, which include detailed policy positions rather than just fluff about his being a “green” candidate. Unfortunately, staffing issues made public and an unwillingness to commit to self-fund coupled with a past history of financially backing Republicans mean Cammack’s campaign has probably already peaked with Democratic primary voters. I doubt Tennessee will ever see another political anomaly like Phil Bredesen. As much as Cammack would like to be one, he simply ain’t. Don’t hold your breath waiting for any of the other candidates to subject themselves to a Stacey Campfield interview.

Jim Kyle put paid to Rosalind Kurita, the thorn in his legislative side that kept him from his dream of becoming lieutenant governor. Even had his dream been realized, though, it would’ve been short lived based on the Republican tide that swept the state senate in 2008. But getting into the game last when there’s no great-stakes political issue to serve as a point of distinction (all three legislators in the race at one point supported an income tax during their legislative careers) is probably going to leave Kyle toward the back of the pack. Early Democratic dollars already have already chased other candidates, and Kyle likely pissed off at least part of a demographic constituency that will now drift to…

Kim McMillan, though uninspiring on the stump, is the one legislative candidate with the benefit of post-legislative executive experience in the Bredesen administration. One wonders, though, why so many Bredesen people flocked so quickly to the McWherter campaign. A cynic might suspect it was the money. McMillan, too, lost a high-profile staffer (causing him to leave the state, in fact). But she has a built-in advantage: women. Republicans have earned some attention statewide for having a variety of high-profile female officeholders. McMillan offers Tennessee women the opportunity to vote for the first woman governor in state history. A built-in constituency should let McMillan pass Kyle but, based on the power of money in politics, probably won’t let her compete on even footing with legacy and organization.

Mike McWherter, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to have much to trade in politically other than being “Ned Ray’s boy,” a descriptor one is likely to overhear at Democratic functions where a previous generation of handlers is on hand to introduce the junior variety around. From being unfamiliar with his party’s President’s name to unnecessarily opining on adoption by gay couples, Mike has already cut off support from a full wing of primary voters, unwise in a broad field where no one is actively courting them but neither is any one seeking to piss them off. There have already been a few remarks about his gun-shyness in last cycle’s U.S. Senate race against Lamar! I suspect there will be a lot of Democrats across the state who wind up saying something nice to Mike’s father while pulling the lever for one of his opponents. Still, those who remember Ned Ray as fondly as many remember Bill Clinton might pay homage one more time. The former governor is a legend of Tennessee Democratic politics, and the power of political legacy in Tennessee can’t be completely discounted.

In this field, though, Roy Herron is the natural winner on the stump. Also, his reputation as a micromanager actually bodes well for an executive position. If he needs to delegate more effectively, he can worry about it after his army of volunteers–visible at every Democratic party function since Jackson Day–disbands after the campaign. Clearly comfortable with both the law and religion (to the point where he wrote a book about it), he’ll be somewhat difficult to out-God. And co-chairing the Broadband Task Force gives him technocratic cred competitive with Cammack’s, especially with his focus on the spread of technology access to the next generation of Tennesseans. In the most recent session, he spoke out forcefully on a number of progressive issues. In Middle Tennessee, I’ve noticed that people from across the Democratic spectrum have lined up behind Herron. Herron’s heel, though, will be his campaign’s comfort with stretching the truth (reinforcing a subtle meme about preacher-lawyer-politicians) on fundraising and an early messaging on labor that might let the faithful in that important Democratic machine operate the machinery for various of the competition. If Herron’s demonstrated organization so far, though, turns out to be more than a for-show Howard Dean fly-in, and he doesn’t back down on the stump, getting out the vote will be easier for him in the hinterlands, likely giving him enough margin for victory.

In the it-came-from-Dresden scenario, no amount of Ned Ray money or suction (with, for instance, Clinton at Jackson Day) is going to allow Mike, even with a crew of Bredesen acolytes at his beck and call, to strong-arm himself into pole position.

The question will be whether the lawyer-preacher-politician can do better against Haslam than Bryson did against Bredesen. And I’ve already laid out a little bit of my thinking on the answer to that question.

I should be clear that this is my analysis of the race at this point in the game. It is not an endorsement of any candidate. We expect to extend interview invitations to all 5 Democratic candidates as primary day draws nearer. Y’know… next year.

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May we please have paper ballots?

May we please have paper ballots?

Last week, TNDP Chair Chip Forrester called for the General Assembly to fire Secretary of State Tre Hargett if he can’t manage to implement the law (Voter Confidence Act) that would give the voters of Tennessee secure and verifiable elections.

A few days prior, Democratic House Leader Gary Odom and Senator Roy Herron led a press conference asking for the Mr. Hargett to begin implementing the law.

Leader Odom:

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Senator Herron:

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More from Leader Odom:

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Nina Cardona of WPLN reported on it:

The law calls for the entire state to switch to a system of paper ballots that are counted by optical scan machines. It specifies that the scanners be certified by the state according to “the applicable…guidelines.”

Both sides agree that no machines on the market meet the most recent set of federal standards, issued in 2005. For that reason, Secretary of State Tre Hargett says the state cannot yet certify any optical scan machines.

But at a press conference today, House Democratic Leader Gary Odom says that’s a waiting game that could be dragged out indefinitely. He contends that by the time machines meet the 2005 standards, another set of guidelines will be in place.

Mr. Hargett came back with a false argument (why settle for “less than the best” equipment out of haste?) and a questionable legal opinion.

There is only one reason why Mr. Hargett will not implement the Voter Confidence Act – he doesn’t want to implement the Voter Confidence Act.

Remember, the 2005 standards in which Mr. Hargett is placing all his opposition eggs are “voluntary” standards. In other words, it’s up to us, the state of Tennessee – in all our states rights glory – to decide whether or not to use the 2005 standards when purchasing equipment.

More simply, the EAC guidelines say that we can use the 2005 standards or not use the 2005 standards so by making the decision ourselves, we are following the EAC guidelines.

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Yesterday, the Tennessee General Assembly adjourned for the year without passing HB0614/SB0872 – the bill that would have delayed implementation of the Tennessee Voter Confidence Act (TVCA – the paper ballot bill).

The TVCA is a rare-breed among bills because the way in which it was crafted makes it nearly perfect.* Not only does it give Tennessee voters paper ballots that register the voter’s intent BEFORE any machine touches the ballots, but it also requires mandatory hand-counted recounts in a certain percentage of precincts (to make sure the totals from the machines match the actual ballot totals) AND requires that the paper ballots that recorded the voter’s original intent become the ballot of record (incredibly handy in the case of a close election or necessary recount).

So during yesterday’s Senate session, not only did Senator Roy Herron save paper ballots, but he also saved secure and verifiable elections by keeping the strongest bits of the TVCA – mandatory recounts and ballots of record – intact.

Senator Roy Herron: “Electronic voting machines can steal elections. They can steal your election….Yet today we decide whether to jeopardize our 2010 elections by allowing electronic voting machines without paper verification. Machines that are absolutely unreliable and unverifiable.

In Iowa in 2006, an auditor noticed a 20-year incumbent being beaten 10 to 1 by a newcomer, but when she checked the paper vote against the electronic vote, she discovered that the incumbent actually was way ahead of the challenger. This error would not have been caught without a paper trail….

In voting last year here in Tennessee, citizens experienced so-called “vote flipping.” The New York Times reported, “…voters complained that [electronic] voting machines registered their votes for Mr. McCain as votes for Mr. Obama.” How can this happen? Researchers at Princeton discovered it is all too easy to infect voting machines with a virus that, in seconds, can flip vote counts.

All it takes to hack into the electronic machine is a common flash drive. This is why the Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations strongly recommended that Tennessee “implement voter-verified paper audit trails statewide.” That is why just last year we passed – and you voted for – the current law. TACIR recommends optical scan machines, like those used by Pickett County and Hamilton County. Hamilton says it is “very satisfied” and “would highly recommend [optical scan systems] to other interested counties.”

But now some say we cannot – or should not – have voter verifiable paper trails in Tennessee in 2010. But counties as large as Hamilton and as small as Pickett have them.

They have them from “sea to shining sea” – from Maine to Hawaii, from Alaska to Florida.

They have them in our neighbors like North Carolina, Missouri, Alabama.

They have them in large states with big cities like New York and California.

They have them in states as rural as the Dakotas, Idaho, West Virginia.

In fact, 33 states – 33 states – currently use or require a voter verifiable paper trail. Why can’t we?

Sure we’ve new Election Commissioners and Registrars, and even a new Coordinator of Elections, but with all this change, what about change we can believe in?

What about elections we can believe in?

*The reason why it’s “nearly perfect” is that in a perfect world we’d be counting all the ballots by hand.

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If I heard it once I hear it a thousand times, if you want to kill a piece of legislation then attach a fiscal note. Which is exactly what the Secretary of State’s office tried to do to kill the Tennessee Voter Confidence (TVCA).

If passed this session, HB614 would have not only delayed the implementation of the TVCA but would have also attached a $11 million dollar fiscal note. The note was crafted using wildly discordant numbers provided to the Secretary of State’s office by the county mayors and/or election officials.

Senator Roy Herron (D-Dresden), while trying to stop the delay in today’s Senate session, eviscerated the numbers by pointing out the disparity in estimated costs given by each county and also cites evidence that elections using paper ballots and optical scan machines instead of electronic voting machines are much less expensive to run.

Senator Herron: “If you look and do comparison in four of our counties in Tennessee they estimate it will cost $50 a ballot to audit a few hundred ballots. $50 a ballot. Do you know what the cost is in states using optical scan machines right now? 9 cents. 9 cents. And we have some counties that say it’s gonna cost them $50 dollars a ballot when other states are doing it for 9 cents a ballot. There are counties that estimate it will cost them $20,000 extra to deliver 70% fewer machines. There are counties that estimate it will cost $700 for privacy screens, ladies and gentlemen, when there are other counties that say they can get them for $20 a piece. 1/35th as much. There are counties that say they can get security containers for $25 a piece. You know what some counties estimate when we came up with figures that we’re talking about tonigt? $2800 a security container. $25 vs. $2800. In Williamson County, to conduct one single poll worker training session they estimate it will cost $39,000. $39,000. There’s one county that says it will cost theym $70,000 extra dollars to store ballots that would not fill up a single filing cabinet. And ladies and gentlemen, Shelby County was referred to earlier, they estimate it would cost them $4.1 million more to implement it, that county has never in its history spent that much for its total annual election-related expenses in the history of the county. So I would tell you ladies and gentlemen that I think the numbers vary so widely on the face of the numbers when you look at variances as much as 35x as much I think the numbers are questionable suspect….

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HB614 (SB872), which would have delayed implementation of the Tennessee Voter Confidence Act, was beaten back a bit by a well-informed and impassioned Senator Roy Herron (D-Dresden). Senator Herron, who offered an amendment to address all the concerns of those orchestrating the delay, along with Senators Jim Kyle and Andy Berke, gave the citizens of Tennessee who want secure and verifiable elections a voice on the Senate floor.

The final vote for the bill was 16-14 and failed to get the majority needed to send it to the Governor for his signature.

As of 5:00 PM this afternoon, the bill has been referred back to Calendar & Rules.

UPDATE: The vote to keep the Tennessee Voter Confidence Act intact and on track for the 2010 election was along party lines, except for Sen. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville). Yay, Senator Burchett!

Sen. Tim Barnes (D-Adams)
Sen. AndyBerke (D-Chattanooga)
Sen. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville)
Sen. Charlotte Burks (D-Monterey)
Sen. Lowe Finney (D-Jackson)
Sen. Ophelia Ford (D-Memphis)
Sen. Thelma Harper (D-Nashville)
Sen. Doug Henry (D-Nashville)
Sen. Roy Herron (D-Dresden)
Sen. Doug Jackson (D-Dickson)
Sen. Jim Kyle (D-Memphis)
Sen. Beverly Marrero (D-Memphis)
Sen. Eric Stewart (D-Belvidere)
Sen. Reginald Tate (D-Memphis)

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Solidarity Against Stupid

WPLN Capitol Hill correspondent, Joe White, asked a significant question during a press conference held by Senate Democrats to protest Republican cuts to the budget: “Will every Senate Democrat vote against the cuts?” Senator Roy Herron (D-Dresden, the Fightin’ 24th!) answered, “Yes, I think Senate Democrats will be united on this.”

And it seems as if that’s the direction we’re heading according to Jeff Woods of the Nashville Scene, who reported that Democrats on the Hill did not back away from the Governor’s characterization of the cuts as “stupid”:

Gov. Phil Bredesen bluntly disparaged the Senate Republican budget proposal as “stupid” at a breakfast meeting with legislative leaders today, and Senate Democrats then trooped en masse into the press room here to heap more scorn on it.

“The governor’s characterization is very fair,” Sen. Lowe Finney said. “I heard him say that,” Sen. Jim Kyle said. “I agree with the governor.”

And all Democrats should be united against the proposed cuts because they take an axe to the very foundation of what Democrats stand for – education, health care, and jobs.

And like Senator Jim Kyle (D-Memphis, the Fightin’ 28th!), every Democrat should be tireless in their efforts to expose Republican hypocrisy:

“Some of these cuts are personal. The House spent two months talking about abortion this year, and now we’ve got a budget cut to eliminate the infant mortality money. That borders on being hypocritical as to what you believe in, whether you are pro-family or pro-life. It’s a study on infant mortality. It’s a study on how to keep these babies alive. I’ve got zip codes in my hometown with infant mortality rates of Third World countries. We’ve got to figure out how to stop that and we don’t need to wait until we’ve got a budget surplus to do it.”

(Hat tip: A Kleinheider Joint)

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Tomorrow’s Senate State and Local Government Committee will also hear SB0872 by Senator Ketron (*HB 0614 by *Todd) which would gut the Tennessee Voter Confidence Act (paper ballots, purchase of precinct- based optical scanner voting machines, mandatory hand count audits of paper ballots).

Odds are that this bill will be disposed of in place of one that will delay implementation of the bill until 2012, which is frustrating on a number of levels.

First, the original Voter Confidence Act was crafted for implementation in 2008. But then-Secretary of State Riley Darnell and Election Coordinator Brook Thompson said they couldn’t get it done by then. So, a compromise was reached for 2010. The bill for 2010 sailed though both houses (unanimously in the Senate and by an overwhelming majority – 96 to 3 – in the House) and the Governor happily signed it into law. We’ve already compromised once. Why do we need to again?

Second, what the hell was Mr. Darnell and Mr. Thompson doing for the past year? Because now we’re being asked, once again, to postpone our best chance – outside of hand counted paper ballots – of having secure and verifiable elections again because the current Secretary of State, Tre Hargett, and Election Coordinator, Mark Goins, say that 18 months is not enough time to obey the law.

Third, I’ve heard all the reasons why they say we must postpone and they are simply not satisfactory.

Last week during the Tennessee Voter Confidence Act Study Committee Democratic members of the General Assembly dispensed with some of them…and activists with the rest.

First, Rep. Gary Moore on fuzzy math and the “We have no place to store the paper ballots” excuse:

Rep. Moore: Right…but, again…I’ve looked at these numbers and I’m not going to get into an argument with you but these numbers are erroneous numbers because you’re assuming it don’t cost anything to store that other equipment…the DREs have to be stored somewhere now, do they not?

Wayne Pruitt: Yes, sir.

Rep. Moore: And they have to be stored in a secure place, do they not?

Wayne Pruitt: We take the most secure place available to us.

Rep. Moore: That’s what I thought. But does it show what it costs to do that? Does it show that cost? What I’m getting at, I don’t mind these numbers here if you say it costs an additional amount to hold an election – but this is what it costs to hold an election under the paper ballot scenario. What does it cost to hold an election under the DRE scenario? And then you put the two side by side and see what any additional costs would be. I think that would be a true, fair assessment. Thank you.

Next, Senator Roy Herron on “we don’t have enough time and/or money; we don’t have machines that qualify; we should wait until the feds butt in:”

Senator Roy Herron: Mr. Goins, what I’m wanting to do, that we can be as certain as human beings can be are legitimate, honest and fair. That is my number one goal…and if it costs a little bit, I understand that. I’d rather pay less than more but my real goal, my number one goal, is that when you’re talking about elections and the very basis for this republic to operate in this state to select its elected officials that’s worthy of some investment. Now, whatever mistakes have been made in the past, I can’t do anything about. Whatever the federal government may do in the future, I can’t do anything about. What I can do, I think, is to ask people I trust and respect like you and the Secretary of State, is to give us the recommendation on something that can give us a fair degree of certitude that the elections will be fair, honest and right. And we can know that when people cast their ballot it will be recorded accurately. That’s what I’m asking for. What I’m hearing from you, just to be clear, is you can’t get it done in 18 months, and you don’t know if there’s any standards that would work, and you’re not sure there’s any state that sets a good model. If that’s not what you’re saying you need to tell me the opposite of those three things, now or later, because that’s what I’m taking from you.

You know, this is why folks get frustrated with government. I understand that frustration but for you to tell me in 18 months “we can’t it done,” “woe is me,” “there’s no standard,” “there’s no state,” “I’m not man enough to get this done.” Now, surely that’s not what you’re telling me. You’ve got too much ability. I know the Secretary of State has too much ability because I worked with him too much to think otherwise to think that in 18 months we can’t figure out a way to get it done. Now whether we should have stimulus money or we shouldn’t, there is some one-time money around. And there ought to be some funds that we can put in this. And I don’t know anything more important to invest in than this democracy.

Finally, concerned citizens who have been eating and breathing election stats dispensed with the numbers:

Bernie Ellis, Gathering to Save Our Democracy: “We think, and I’ve shared this with the committee, and I’ll end with this point, rather than speculating on what the costs are, which again is really all the counties can do at this point, if you look at states like Florida and North Carolina who have gone through this process before us and have had enough counties who have used both systems so they can compare apples to apples, in Florida, the counties that went to DREs spent six times more money than the counties that went to OpScan [optical scan]. In North Carolina, over a six year period counties that used OpScan actual election expenses not estimated expenses but actual expenses that were 35-40% lower then counties using DREs. Those aren’t guesstimates, those are hard figures from comparable counties. If our concern – and I’ll finish with this – if our concern is saving money, and it should be, uh, a secondary concern to having an election process we can trust, but if it’s a concern, the best thing you can do for counties is implement OpScan by 2010. They’ll save 35-40% of their operating costs if they move that way and again if you have questions we can share with you why there is such a difference in cost.”

Tomorrow’s hearing of the Senate State and Local Government Committee is in Legislative Plaza Room 12 at 8:00 am.

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