Let’s play political pick up sticks:

Congressman Roy Herron
The first big question is: Why did Roy Herron switch races? Based on the political winds blowing in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen’s unprecedented 95-county sweep was an anomaly unlikely to be repeated by a Democrat for a generation or more (or, probably, any politician). A statewide win for a Democrat in a mid-term election year likely to favor, at least congressionally, the party in opposition to the President would be a hard-fought coup. Especially looking at the fundraising breakdown by party. So for Herron, winning the governor’s mansion, even should he win the Democratic primary, would be difficult. But let’s say that he is, in fact, the frontrunner in Tennessee’s fightin’ 8th. How could he possibly hold the seat as a freshman congressman after the Republican-controlled General Assembly redraws the districts to transform our 5-4 Democratic-majority congressional delegation to a likely 7-2 Republican-majority congressional delegation?

Possible answers:

• Herron had polling showing that there was no way in hell a Democrat could win the governor’s race, or possibly that he in particular had no way in hell of beating a generic Republican.
• Herron had polling showing that, actually, despite his public organizing prowess, he was getting thumped in terms of the Democratic primary.
• Herron had polling showing that he had wanted that congressional seat ever since he was a little boy.
• Herron somehow wound up in a deal with friends on the other side of the aisle whereby his district wouldn’t get too badly redrawn, giving him a fighting chance of keeping the seat for a decade.
• Herron had polling from before any other race that demonstrated that his state senate seat was no safer than Tanner’s congressional seat or he knows that he would’ve drawn a stronger challenger than Fincher for his own seat.

Honestly, I can’t see how a long-term view that suggests that less than a single term could possibly be appealing to a state senator in a seat that is assumed to be safe. Is 2 years in Congress better than 4 (or) more years in the state senate? Can Herron somehow become a rare Tanner-like figure who is a legendary Southern Democrat perceived as independent-minded and authentic in a mostly rural part of the state? We probably won’t know the answer till 2012, should Herron best Stephen Fincher, darling of the NRCC. Regardless, I fully expect Herron to emerge as the Democratic frontrunner, even if other Democrats (not named Lowe Finney) emerge to fight in a primary.

Side bet for political poker players: Did Herron and McWherter discuss the Tanner seat? Did each prefer the race he’s now conclusively in? I.e., Herron preferred the Tanner race and McWherter preferred the gubernatorial race?

The Governor’s Club
Herron’s departure lets the other son of Dresden, Mike McWherter, shore up his Northwest Tennessee base. Some have suggested that it advantages Jim Kyle, too, but I don’t see that. The big question will be the fight among all three of McWherter, Kyle, and McMillan for Middle Tennessee supporters, where Herron had a broad base of support, and McWherter just fired a loud opening shot.

Cammack’s departure… well, it’s unlikely to have a meaningful impact. Unless, I suppose, one of the remaining three finds a way to extend Bredesen’s legacy in making Tennessee a green technology center and generally becoming a green policy technocratic candidate.

I hadn’t predicted that the Democratic primary would’ve been particularly brutal with 5 candidates, at least nowhere nearly as brutal as the Republican primary has been and will be. And that’s in part because the Republicans feel the need to perpetually seek Truth in Conservatism, whereas the Democrats have presented as relatively un-bold pragmatists, with frontrunners McWherter (gays) and Herron (God, guns) anchoring some socially conservative points but otherwise generally hoping their ability to connect with a base was likely to determine a winner. I shudder, actually, to think what the general election might look like without Herron, as he was a forceful floor speaker who was probably the most unafraid to take on progressive causes strategically and with charisma. Kyle has no problem on the attack (“Kurita.” “Who?”), so that might be fun, but I’m still waiting for a grand populist (or otherwise) outburst from one of the Democratic contenders that makes running for governor as a Democrat seem like it’s not only fun but also the right thing to do. Otherwise, Bill Haslam, coasting calmly above the wingnut fray, will likely resonate more genuinely with Tennessee voters angling for another Bredesen (a pragmatic administrator coming from a recent background of municipal executive experience) and not disrupt my original prophecy.

In the interview we learn about the Fightin’ 27th, the job of the Senate Democratic Caucus and its chair, regional megasites, voter suppression, being torn between several gubernatorial candidates, and that Democrats are really the party of the big tent. Plus, Senator Finney clears up the confusion about the existence of rural Democrats and finishes this sentence, “I probably shouldn’t be telling you this but…” [24.66MB Download MP3]

Senator Finney: But as I was sitting there watching them [Kim McMillian, Ward Cammack, Mike McWherter, and Roy Herron] I thought, they all bring a unique perspective to the race – a different set of tools, if you will, on how to fix the State’s issues, the State’s problems. I’m really excited. I think the next year is going to be really tremendous in Democratic politics. We need that in Tennessee. As you mentioned the trending and just what the turnout has been, you look at some of the districts in the last race where we had really good Democratic candidates running for the House and for the Senate and unfortunately they’re not serving with us now because of the turnout. They were running in districts where Barack Obama was beat by 15, 18,000 votes. That tells you that we’ve got a message to communicate – we’ve got to get it out there – and generate some excitement and some enthusiasm about what we want to do to help our state. And I think we have a tremendous slate of candidates to help us do that.

Download audio file (liberadio20090511lowefinney.mp3)

Senator Lowe Finney

Newly elected Senate Democratic Caucus Chair Lowe Finney (D-Jackson, the Fightin’ 27th!) – who will be filling the void left by gubernatorial candidate Roy Herron – is booked to appear on Liberadio(!) on Monday, May 11th.

Following his election on a unanimous vote, Senator Finney said:

“I am humbled by the confidence that my Senate Democratic Caucus colleagues have placed in me today. I will give it my best effort as we continue to work hard on the things that matter most to Tennesseans in these challenging times.

“I am grateful to Senator Herron for his thoughtful and thorough leadership as well as his friendship.”

We’re looking forward to interviewing Senator Finney, one of the members of the talented and energetic emerging young guns sub-caucus.

(Long low bow: Kleinheider)

It’s already been passed in the Senate (thanks for voting “No” Senators Beverly Marrero (D-Memphis, the Fightin’ 30th!), Lowe Finney (D-Jackson, the Fightin’ 27th!), and Andy Berke (D-Chattanooga, the Fightin’ 10th!) with six amendments attached – a poor attempt at leveling inherently unfair legislation. With the six amendments, the law would exempt the indigent, those living in a nursing home or staying in a hospital, the over-65 crowd, and those religiously opposed to having their picture taken.

Good, right? Not really. If you want participatory democracy to be equitable and still require Photo IDs to vote, then you have to make them free and easily accessible for everyone – not just a few exceptions. Perhaps we can put a voter registration and photo booth in every grocery and convenient store in town and staff them 24/7 (for you know, people who work the third shift).

Huh. Voter registration and photo booths in every grocery and convenient store. Now that’s a fiscal note I’d like to see attached to ol’ HB0639.

Ironically, while Tennessee’s elected Republicans continue to work towards making it more difficult for us to vote, they want to make it easier for us buy guns and drink underage.

And for those of you who think showing a photo ID is a reasonable restriction to place on the voting process, I guarantee you that if this passes they’ll be back next year with even further restrictions. Where Florida goes, Tennessee will follow.

So give a call or send an email to the members of the House Elections Subcommittee and urge them to vote “No” on HB0639.

Seriously worth the click to embiggen.

This Tomorrow morning at 8:30 am, the Senate State & Local Government Committee will hear SB150 by Senator Bill Ketron (the companion bill is HB0639 by Rep. Debra Maggart) which would require voter to show “qualified photographic identification” before being allowed to vote.

When last we left our bill, Senator Lowe Finney’s (D-Jackson, the Fightin’ 27th!) asked the sponsor, Senator Ketron (R-Murfreesboro), if there had “been any other instances of ‘voter fraud’ in the state of Tennessee?” Senator Ketron said he would get back to him on that. Tune in tomorrow morning for the thrilling conclusion!

While on the surface this bill may seem like a good idea, it is really a solution in search of a problem and will actually do more to disenfranchise voters than maintain the integrity of our elections.

Photo ID laws are the modern day equivalent of a poll tax – The expenses involved in obtaining a photo ID card will prevent some individuals from voting. While the bills include language to allow individuals to file paupers’ oaths and accompanying affidavits of indigency to waive costs, it could be uncomfortable and even humiliating to request the waiver. In addition, it is unclear how the information about the exemption will be shared and it is more likely that individuals will not go to the polls because they do not have a photo ID card.

There is no credible evidence that photo ID laws prevent fraud – The Brennan Center of Justice has studied the issue of voter fraud extensively and have concluded that someone is more likely to be hit by lightning than commit voter fraud. They also analyzed the more than 250 claims of fraud in the Supreme Court’s photo ID case and found that there was “not one proven case of a fraudulent vote that the challenged law could prevent.”

Restrictive photo ID cards disenfranchise legitimate voters – Bills like these have the potential of disenfranchise between 13 and 22 million people in the United States who do not have a photo id. A disproportionately large number of these are minorities, seniors and limited-income and disabled persons. Examples of disenfranchisement of the elderly, and poor, elderly nuns in other states who have these laws is well documented.

We should be making it easier, not harder, for people to vote – Nothing is more fundamental to our democracy than the right to vote. But bills like this one restrict, not increase, access to the voting booth. So, don’t be a voter hater. Rather than preventing Tennesseans from voting, why not ensure that every eligible voter is allowed to vote, and that every vote counts?

Please email the members of the Senate State & Local Government Committee ASAP and urge them to oppose SB150: Bill Ketron (R-Murfreesboro, the fightin’ 13th), Chair, Lowe Finney (D-Jackson), Vice Chair, Joe Haynes (D-Goodlettsville), Secretary, Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Mike Faulk (R-Church Hill), Thelma Harper (D-Nashville), Mark Norris (R-Collierville), Jim Tracy (R-Shelbyville), Ken Yager (R-Harriman).

A law that keeps even one person from exercising their franchise is one law too many. Some don’t feel that way and so to them, SB150, which would require photo IDs to vote and was passed out of the Senate State and Local Government Committee on Tuesday, is no big whoop.

But it is a big whoop, especially since the bill is a solution in search of a problem.

First, let’s define the terms we are working with. “Voter fraud,” which rarely happens, is fraud perpetrated by a voter, i.e. impersonating someone to cast a vote or voting even though you do not meet the eligibility requirements. “Election fraud,” which happens more frequently, is systematic and systemic disenfranchisement. In other words, it’s fraud perpetrated by those working within the system.

During Tuesday’s meeting, Senator Bill Ketron (R-Murfreesboro), the bill’s sponsor and chairman of the committee, said that he realized the need for photo IDs when he was in Memphis testifying in the Ophelia Ford “voter fraud” case. He said, “Unfortunately, we know that voter fraud exists and that there are people who try to be dishonest in an election.”

Actually, what we know is that “election fraud” exists. The three people in Memphis who plead guilty to faking votes in the Ophelia Ford case – “two of them cast in the names of dead people – were poll workers, not voters. No walking dead tried to vote (or eat brains).

We’re still waiting for an answer to Senator Lowe Finney’s (D-Jackson), the Fightin’ 27th!) follow up question to Senator Ketron during that very same committee meeting – “have their been any other instances of ‘voter fraud’ in the state of Tennessee?”

Doing his best Sarah Palin, Senator Ketron said, “I’ll try and find ya some and I’ll bring’em to ya.”

I left a message for Senator Finney to ask if he had heard from Senator Ketron, but have not yet heard back. My best educated guess is that the answer is “no, I haven’t.” Why? Because requiring photo IDs to vote is a solution in search of a problem.

Next up: The irony of absentee ballots.