Re-calibrating Projections for 2010 in Tennessee

On December 3, 2009, in Liberate Your Radio from The Right, by Freddie

So this has been quite a week for politics in Tennessee. First, news broke that long-serving West Tennessee congressman John Tanner would not seek re-election in 2010. Almost immediately after that announcement, state senator Roy Herron, who had been doing quite well seeking the Democratic gubernatorial primary nod, announced that he would instead seek the Democratic congressional primary nod in the 8th congressional district. A day later, Ward Cammack announces his withdrawal from the Democratic gubernatorial contest, reducing the number of announced candidates from 5 to 3.

Let’s play political pick up sticks:

Congressman Roy Herron
The first big question is: Why did Roy Herron switch races? Based on the political winds blowing in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen’s unprecedented 95-county sweep was an anomaly unlikely to be repeated by a Democrat for a generation or more (or, probably, any politician). A statewide win for a Democrat in a mid-term election year likely to favor, at least congressionally, the party in opposition to the President would be a hard-fought coup. Especially looking at the fundraising breakdown by party. So for Herron, winning the governor’s mansion, even should he win the Democratic primary, would be difficult. But let’s say that he is, in fact, the frontrunner in Tennessee’s fightin’ 8th. How could he possibly hold the seat as a freshman congressman after the Republican-controlled General Assembly redraws the districts to transform our 5-4 Democratic-majority congressional delegation to a likely 7-2 Republican-majority congressional delegation?

Possible answers:

  • Herron had polling showing that there was no way in hell a Democrat could win the governor’s race, or possibly that he in particular had no way in hell of beating a generic Republican.
  • Herron had polling showing that, actually, despite his public organizing prowess, he was getting thumped in terms of the Democratic primary.
  • Herron had polling showing that he had wanted that congressional seat ever since he was a little boy.
  • Herron somehow wound up in a deal with friends on the other side of the aisle whereby his district wouldn’t get too badly redrawn, giving him a fighting chance of keeping the seat for a decade.
  • Herron had polling from before any other race that demonstrated that his state senate seat was no safer than Tanner’s congressional seat or he knows that he would’ve drawn a stronger challenger than Fincher for his own seat.

Honestly, I can’t see how a long-term view that suggests that less than a single term could possibly be appealing to a state senator in a seat that is assumed to be safe. Is 2 years in Congress better than 4 (or) more years in the state senate? Can Herron somehow become a rare Tanner-like figure who is a legendary Southern Democrat perceived as independent-minded and authentic in a mostly rural part of the state? We probably won’t know the answer till 2012, should Herron best Stephen Fincher, darling of the NRCC. Regardless, I fully expect Herron to emerge as the Democratic frontrunner, even if other Democrats (not named Lowe Finney) emerge to fight in a primary.

Side bet for political poker players: Did Herron and McWherter discuss the Tanner seat? Did each prefer the race he’s now conclusively in? I.e., Herron preferred the Tanner race and McWherter preferred the gubernatorial race?

The Governor’s Club
Herron’s departure lets the other son of Dresden, Mike McWherter, shore up his Northwest Tennessee base. Some have suggested that it advantages Jim Kyle, too, but I don’t see that. The big question will be the fight among all three of McWherter, Kyle, and McMillan for Middle Tennessee supporters, where Herron had a broad base of support, and McWherter just fired a loud opening shot.

Cammack’s departure… well, it’s unlikely to have a meaningful impact. Unless, I suppose, one of the remaining three finds a way to extend Bredesen’s legacy in making Tennessee a green technology center and generally becoming a green policy technocratic candidate.

I hadn’t predicted that the Democratic primary would’ve been particularly brutal with 5 candidates, at least nowhere nearly as brutal as the Republican primary has been and will be. And that’s in part because the Republicans feel the need to perpetually seek Truth in Conservatism, whereas the Democrats have presented as relatively un-bold pragmatists, with frontrunners McWherter (gays) and Herron (God, guns) anchoring some socially conservative points but otherwise generally hoping their ability to connect with a base was likely to determine a winner. I shudder, actually, to think what the general election might look like without Herron, as he was a forceful floor speaker who was probably the most unafraid to take on progressive causes strategically and with charisma. Kyle has no problem on the attack (“Kurita.” “Who?”), so that might be fun, but I’m still waiting for a grand populist (or otherwise) outburst from one of the Democratic contenders that makes running for governor as a Democrat seem like it’s not only fun but also the right thing to do. Otherwise, Bill Haslam, coasting calmly above the wingnut fray, will likely resonate more genuinely with Tennessee voters angling for another Bredesen (a pragmatic administrator coming from a recent background of municipal executive experience) and not disrupt my original prophecy.

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Gerrymandering, Schmerrymandering

On June 24, 2009, in Liberate Your Radio from The Right, by Mary Mancini

We just received a press release from the office of Congressman John Tanner which lays out the redistricting reform plan that he, along with fellow Tennesee Democratic Congressman Jim Cooper, Mike Castle (R-DE), Allen Boyd (D-FL), Baron Hill (D-IN), and U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), is working on to end gerrymandering, aka, “the political power grab that too often cripples Congress’ ability to work together on bipartisan solutions.”

They introduced the bipartisan, bicameral Fairness and Independence in Redistricting (FAIR) Act at a Capitol Hill press conference with redistricting reform advocates and grassroots leaders, including Americans for Redistricting Reform. Tanner has sponsored similar legislation since 2005.

“We must reform the system so the people can elect their representatives instead of allowing politicians to select their constituents with computer software based on strictly political considerations,” Congressman Tanner said. “When politicians draw district lines, it often favors political partisanship and self-protection over public interest. Gerrymandered districts breed partisanship and discourage Members of Congress from working across the aisle on real solutions to the challenges facing our country.”

“The political center continues to disappear, and fewer Members are willing to work across the aisle,” Congressman Castle said. “Instead we are seeing increased identification with political parties and issues driven and debated from the more extreme ideologies. Curbing this trend isn’t impossible; we can make a difference with this legislation.”

“When politicians carve up Congressional districts for partisan interests, democracy suffers,” Congressman Cooper said. “Gerrymandering is backroom politics at its ugliest: it protects incumbents, increases partisanship and stifles the will of the people. The FAIR Act will solve these problems by putting decisions about district lines in the hands of unbiased judges.”

“Gerrymandering should be a concern to all Americans,” Sen. Johnson said. “Creating a fair and balanced way of representing the American people is something I’m proud to support.”

The FAIR Act sets minimum national guidelines for states to follow in drawing Congressional district lines. A bipartisan commission in each state would draw that state’s Congressional map exactly once every 10 years, following the release of new Census data. Districts would be drawn to adhere to the Voting Rights Act, equal population, geography and local boundaries. The legislation only affects Congressional districts and does not address district lines for state and local elections.

“Redistricting reform must occur in the 111th Congress or the next round of gerrymanders will begin anew in the wake of the 2010 Census,” said J. Gerald Hebert, Executive Director of the Campaign Legal Center and Program Administrator of Americans for Redistricting Reform. “The current system is a terrible disservice to the citizens of this country and a gross distortion of the democracy envisioned by the founding fathers for the legislative branch. The time to fix this system is now. It will be too late if we wait for the inevitable public outrage that will follow the next wave of gerrymanders. The time to act is now.”

Modern gerrymandering – the art of drawing creative district boundaries to benefit a candidate or political party – dates back to the 1962 U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Baker v. Carr, a case that originated in Shelby County, Tennessee, Tanner said. Shelby County Quarterly Court Chairman Charles Baker, originally from Millington, Tennessee, sued the State of Tennessee over unequal representation in the state legislature. Baker argued that Shelby County, as a metropolitan area, was underrepresented compared to Tennessee’s rural communities.

The Supreme Court ruled in Baker’s favor, setting the precedent for the judicial branch to insert itself into the issue of representational mapping. This eventually led to other similar rulings, such as the “one person, one vote” principle.

“’One person, one vote’ is important for our representative democracy, but over the years, professional politicians have overreached in redistricting,” Congressman Tanner said. “Politicians choosing their constituents shuts voters out of the process.”

Love love love the timing.

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Tanner Wants to Tax the Bonuses, Tax the Bonuses

On March 18, 2009, in Liberate Your Radio from The Right, by Mary Mancini

Hot off the presses:

U.S. Rep. John Tanner [D-TN, the Fightin' 8th!] helped introduce legislation to recover bonuses handed out by businesses such as AIG that received federal rescue money under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), first authorized last year. Tanner is also demanding that the Treasury Department step up its scrutiny of how taxpayer money is spent at federally rescued companies.

“We, like taxpayers in Tennessee and across the country, are outraged that taxpayer money was used to reward under-performing executives,” Congressman Tanner said. “We must work to recoup the $165 million in taxpayer money used for these bonuses.

“More than 70,000 workers in the 8th Congressional district – almost 10% of the workforce – are out of work. Families in West and Middle Tennessee are struggling to find jobs and pay their bills. Our priority should be continuing to help these working families and not executives at AIG and other companies receiving taxpayer money.”

Tanner is an original co-sponsor of legislation (H.R. 1586, filed March 18) imposing a 90% tax on bonuses from companies receiving more than $5 billion in taxpayer TARP funds. Congressman Tanner serves on the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over all tax policy.

Congressman Tanner has also demanded in writing that the Administration increase its scrutiny of companies receiving federal recovery assistance.

“Public confidence in our economic system can only be restored with real transparency and accountability,” Tanner and 93 Democratic colleagues wrote in their March 17 letter to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. “We are pleased to hear that President Obama intends to block the AIG bonuses and hope he will use any vehicle necessary to protect the American taxpayers’ interest. Our constituents deserve nothing less.”

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Tennessee GOP to Congressman: Stay in Your Office and Do Nothing

On February 17, 2009, in Liberate Your Radio from The Right, by Mary Mancini

Wah. How dare John Tanner – Congressman from Tennessee and president of NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly – do his job. Instead of engaging with the global community to ensure the security of the American people, he should just stay holed up in his Washington DC office obstructing any kind of meaningful legislation and then take credit for it when it passes, like these guys.

That’s what Bill Hobbs and the TN GOP think anyway. In their twisted world view, Congressman Tanner is taking advantage of the American people by leading a congressional delegation on a fact-finding mission to some *gasp* fancy-pants European cities when he should be just sitting in his Washington office waiting for his marching orders from Rush Limbaugh:

The estimated average tax cut that middle class Americans will receive for the last six months of the year as part of the bloated ‘economic stimulus’ package that John Tanner and the Democrats passed in Congress today is $13 a week…At $13 a week, it would take the average American several years to save up enough money to take their sweetie to Paris for Valentine’s Day, but John Tanner and Bart Gordon aren’t average American…They are Democrat congressmen who claim to be fiscal conservatives but are right now jetting off to Europe at taxpayers’ expense instead of coming back to Tennessee to explain why they voted for billions of dollars in pork projects and payoffs to special interest groups but only $13 a week for the average middle class taxpayer.

You want to talk about the average middle class taxpayer? OK, let’s talk about the average middle class taxpayer. The last attempt at tax relief for them from one of your guys was a one time only $600 tax rebate in 2001. How’s that $1.44 per week working out for you, dude? More importantly, how’s that that tax rebate working out for the U.S. economy? By one economist’s calculations, that rebate “cost four times as much as it put back into the economy because so much of that money was saved or used to pay off old debts.” In other words, the last time a Republican tried his hand at driving the economy we got the largest 13-month job loss since 1939 (3.6 million since December of 2007 bringing the total number of unemployed Americans to 11.6 million), a plunging stock market, and the near-total collapse of the banking industry.

I also don’t think Hobbs noticed that he’s in the minority when it comes to thinking that Tanner did the wrong thing by voting for the “pork projects and payoffs to special interest groups” – or what we in the reality-based community like to call a “long-term plan to turn around the economy.” Public support for President Obama’s stimulus package increased to 59% in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll – up from 52% in January.

Hobbs also conveniently leaves out a couple of other simple facts, 1) Tanner’s delegation is bi-partisan – joining tanner are Republican Reps. John Boozman (Ark.); Jo Ann Emerson (Mo.) and Jeff Miller (Fla.) – and 2) traveling to these places – no matter how fabulous – is what these particular lawmakers do to, you know, keep up with political, economic and security challenges that face the United States. At least that’s what the Defense News – which is part of the Army Times Publishing Company, the leading military and government news periodical publisher in the world – says.

Congressman Tanner has a full schedule on this trip and if he and the Mrs. are lucky they might be able to fit in a nice meal.

H/T: Jeff Woods at the Scene’s Pith in the Wind

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