So this has been quite a week for politics in Tennessee. First, news broke that long-serving West Tennessee congressman John Tanner would not seek re-election in 2010. Almost immediately after that announcement, state senator Roy Herron, who had been doing quite well seeking the Democratic gubernatorial primary nod, announced that he would instead seek the Democratic congressional primary nod in the 8th congressional district. A day later, Ward Cammack announces his withdrawal from the Democratic gubernatorial contest, reducing the number of announced candidates from 5 to 3.

Let’s play political pick up sticks:

Congressman Roy Herron
The first big question is: Why did Roy Herron switch races? Based on the political winds blowing in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen’s unprecedented 95-county sweep was an anomaly unlikely to be repeated by a Democrat for a generation or more (or, probably, any politician). A statewide win for a Democrat in a mid-term election year likely to favor, at least congressionally, the party in opposition to the President would be a hard-fought coup. Especially looking at the fundraising breakdown by party. So for Herron, winning the governor’s mansion, even should he win the Democratic primary, would be difficult. But let’s say that he is, in fact, the frontrunner in Tennessee’s fightin’ 8th. How could he possibly hold the seat as a freshman congressman after the Republican-controlled General Assembly redraws the districts to transform our 5-4 Democratic-majority congressional delegation to a likely 7-2 Republican-majority congressional delegation?

Possible answers:

  • Herron had polling showing that there was no way in hell a Democrat could win the governor’s race, or possibly that he in particular had no way in hell of beating a generic Republican.
  • Herron had polling showing that, actually, despite his public organizing prowess, he was getting thumped in terms of the Democratic primary.
  • Herron had polling showing that he had wanted that congressional seat ever since he was a little boy.
  • Herron somehow wound up in a deal with friends on the other side of the aisle whereby his district wouldn’t get too badly redrawn, giving him a fighting chance of keeping the seat for a decade.
  • Herron had polling from before any other race that demonstrated that his state senate seat was no safer than Tanner’s congressional seat or he knows that he would’ve drawn a stronger challenger than Fincher for his own seat.

Honestly, I can’t see how a long-term view that suggests that less than a single term could possibly be appealing to a state senator in a seat that is assumed to be safe. Is 2 years in Congress better than 4 (or) more years in the state senate? Can Herron somehow become a rare Tanner-like figure who is a legendary Southern Democrat perceived as independent-minded and authentic in a mostly rural part of the state? We probably won’t know the answer till 2012, should Herron best Stephen Fincher, darling of the NRCC. Regardless, I fully expect Herron to emerge as the Democratic frontrunner, even if other Democrats (not named Lowe Finney) emerge to fight in a primary.

Side bet for political poker players: Did Herron and McWherter discuss the Tanner seat? Did each prefer the race he’s now conclusively in? I.e., Herron preferred the Tanner race and McWherter preferred the gubernatorial race?

The Governor’s Club
Herron’s departure lets the other son of Dresden, Mike McWherter, shore up his Northwest Tennessee base. Some have suggested that it advantages Jim Kyle, too, but I don’t see that. The big question will be the fight among all three of McWherter, Kyle, and McMillan for Middle Tennessee supporters, where Herron had a broad base of support, and McWherter just fired a loud opening shot.

Cammack’s departure… well, it’s unlikely to have a meaningful impact. Unless, I suppose, one of the remaining three finds a way to extend Bredesen’s legacy in making Tennessee a green technology center and generally becoming a green policy technocratic candidate.

I hadn’t predicted that the Democratic primary would’ve been particularly brutal with 5 candidates, at least nowhere nearly as brutal as the Republican primary has been and will be. And that’s in part because the Republicans feel the need to perpetually seek Truth in Conservatism, whereas the Democrats have presented as relatively un-bold pragmatists, with frontrunners McWherter (gays) and Herron (God, guns) anchoring some socially conservative points but otherwise generally hoping their ability to connect with a base was likely to determine a winner. I shudder, actually, to think what the general election might look like without Herron, as he was a forceful floor speaker who was probably the most unafraid to take on progressive causes strategically and with charisma. Kyle has no problem on the attack (“Kurita.” “Who?”), so that might be fun, but I’m still waiting for a grand populist (or otherwise) outburst from one of the Democratic contenders that makes running for governor as a Democrat seem like it’s not only fun but also the right thing to do. Otherwise, Bill Haslam, coasting calmly above the wingnut fray, will likely resonate more genuinely with Tennessee voters angling for another Bredesen (a pragmatic administrator coming from a recent background of municipal executive experience) and not disrupt my original prophecy.

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In a statement released this afternoon, Bill Frist opened the floodgates for Republican gubernatorial hopefuls and kept the door closed for his own presidential ambitions by confirming that he will not run for governor in Tennessee in 2010.

Who will be the Republican hopefuls?

  • Zach Wamp: The congressman from the fighting 3rd has basically been telling Frist to shit or get off the pot for weeks. I’m sure I’m not the only Tennessean who has noticed his self-promoting mug on billboards prominently placed along I-40 the farther East one gets in Tennessee. His shrewd pre-emptive waste management of his nose candy problem was almost Obama-esque, but is he too zealous?
  • Bill Haslam: Haslam has a head-down reputation for competent governance of Tennessee’s pre-Appalachian outpost, and he’s less of a lightning rod than former Knoxville mayor Victor Ashe.
  • Bill Gibbons: I’ll confess to knowing least about Gibbons other than that he has confessed interest in the race as a Republican.
  • Marsha Blackburn: The only female congressman in Tennessee, the newly feminist and ever-ambitious ex-stylist Marsha Marsha Marsha has her work cut out for her in accessing the same base Wamp is likely to court, especially after a healthy challenge from her right by Tom Leatherwood in 2008’s Republican primary. Word in the mythical backrooms is that the Baker boys aren’t fond of her. Her ambition more than conventional wisdom leave her on the list. Rep. Beth Harwell’s recent deferral to Mumpower keeps her off for now.

The real wildcard here will be whether this is a replay of the 2006 U.S. Senate Republican primary, where two conservatives (Bryant, Hilleary) pave the way for a moderate (Corker), or whether two moderates pave the way for a conservative. Will Gibbons enter the fray as a moderate or a conservative (particularly of the social variety)? I’m expecting Haslam to lean moderate, although he could (unpleasantly) surprise me.

Haslam stands to out-Bresdesen Bredesen by campaigning as a pragmatic fiscally responsible executive able to build alliances with rather than alienate core members of his party but able to be a sincere bipartisan operator at the same time.

The other big winner from today’s news is Democratic state senator Andy Berke. Having recently been the best promoter of Democratic ideas in the state, he stands well poised to emerge from what will probably be a small field of legitimate Democratic contenders if the U.S. Senate primary is any gauge of Democratic interest in statewide office.

Honestly, I don’t know if there will be any other serious contenders than former state representative (and first woman Majority Leader) Kim McMillan, and I’ll be interested to see how she makes the case, other than explicitly, that someone who previously supported a state income tax can win statewide office in Tennessee. Is it possible that a pro-income-tax progressive consensus could emerge that could push her past Berke’s redefinition of Democrats? I see that as almost as unlikely as her using her past support as an asset rather than a liability in the first place.

I suppose I should mention Lincoln Davis, as he has done some preliminary positioning. His name being in the hat would certainly increase tensions about the direction of the party. Having treated Obama in the Republican-lite mode, his was not an uncommon approach to Democratic presidential punditry in Tennessee, and that mode hasn’t served the party well at the ballot box since we’re in a state flush with real live Republicans who are certainly not fat-free.

And it almost pains me to mention Harold Ford, Jr. because I haven’t seen any indication that he’s serious about governance, although his name has come up in conversations about the race. I’m hopeful that Frist’s bowing out doesn’t increase the prospects that HaFo enters the race.

As much as I’d like to see the Democratic primary campaign generate broader statewide interest, I suspect that, should Haslam demonstrate grade-A gangsterism in the Republican primary, the race will be his to lose. The post-Kurita TNDP is unlikely to find a revolutionary in either Charles Robert Bone or Chip Forrester that truly speaks to Lamar!’s grand divisions broadly, so the rebuilding of the state party is likely to take more than a single election cycle, especially after the presidential, U.S. Senate, and General Assembly races we witnessed in 2008. And with Andy Berke one of few people in Tennessee Democratic politics willing to play the game on someone other than Bill Hobbs’s turf, the number of skilled messengers is likely to remain too few to allow him a realistic shot at the governor’s mansion. Regardless, I’d like to see a spirited contest between him and McMillan, as I think they might be able to point the way for the next iteration of the TNDP, especially since each will be based outside of Nashville.

SEE ALSO: Kleinheider

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Tonight I watched John Seigenthaler moderate a debate between Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam and Congressman Jim Cooper on the steps of the parthenon as part of the Youth Presidential Debate 2008. This was a great collaboration of Montgomery Bell Academy with the Mayor’s Youth Council and Metro Nashville Public Schools.

It was a cool early fall evening, and the doors of the parthenon stood open, providing a glimpse of the chambers of Athena behind the debaters. Haslam stood in for McCain-Palin, and Cooper stood in for Obama-Biden. Each fielded a number of previously submitted questions from area students. As Jim Cooper said in his opening remarks, “We don’t inherit this country from our ancestors; every day we borrow it from you.”

Here is a sampling of the questions with answers captured impressionistically by me:

  1. On nuclear energy

    Haslam: Three point answer: 1) drill more, 2) use less, 3) pursue alternatives, including nuclear (cited France)

    Cooper: Coal has a role. “We’re the Saudi Arabia of coal.” Mentioned support of nuclear, which is not always safe in Democratic-leaning areas.

  2. On campaign finance (in light of both candidates receiving significant financial support from Wall Street)

    Cooper: There is a problem with the way we finance elections.

    Haslam: Noted that there is “all sorts of influence,” not all of it monetary.

  3. On the draft

    Haslam: Gave strong assurances that McCain didn’t support a draft. POW! Strong military volunteerism in family. Slipped and cited “George Wallace” when he meant “George Washington,” but quickly corrected himself.

    Cooper: Claimed that Iraq was the first all-volunteer war. Supported a civilian service corps because service is the only thing that fosters “true humanity, true community.”

  4. On presidential blame for the financial crisis

    Cooper: Pointed out that Clinton gave us the first (footnoted) surplus since the 1920s. Cited the independent Federal Reserve, the role of Congress, and the power of the bully pulpit.

    Haslam: Cautioned that “government is not a magic box. You get out what you put in.”

  5. On going green (at the suggestion of pop culture)

    Haslam: Indicated that it transcended pop culture. Asserted that whether climate change is man-made or not doesn’t matter. Conserving and cutting costs “makes sense.”

    Cooper: Said he’s learning from his daughter, who is a “localvore.” Said the spirit of conservation connects her to the old ways of her grandmother, who saved material things (string, paper) for later reuse.

  6. On Iran

    Cooper: Suggested that the “young people” read Reading Lolita in Tehran: A Memoir in Books as a method of better understanding other cultures. Referenced Israel’s complicated relationship with the international community and the complications of Shia versus Sunni.

    Haslam: Suggested that there is no black/white. That there is lots of “nuance.”

  7. On containing the costs of universal healthcare

    Haslam: Suggested that market controls will be the most effective method.

    Cooper: With “all due respect,” suggested that this was “a terrible question” because it was asked with the assumption that universal healthcare would be more costly than the status quo, which is incredibly expensive with little value comparative to other industrialized countries. Recommended Overtreated: Why Too Much Medicine Is Making Us Sicker and Poorer for further reading. Promoted the Healthy Americans Act. Cited need to stop bad incentives.

  8. On working families

    Cooper: Repeatedly stated that Obama’s tax plan lowers taxes for 95% of Americans and suggested that it’s time for people to “upgrade your stereotypes.”

    Haslam: Suggested that Obama’s promises can’t be kept just by increasing taxes on 5% of Americans.

  9. On joining the International Criminal Court

    Haslam: Claimed McCain would consider joining if American soldiers could be adequately protected and not “second-guessed” during combat. POW!

    Cooper: Contra McCain, most Republicans have not been open-minded on this issue. Cited America’s damaged international reputation.

  10. On offshore drilling

    Cooper: Noted that previous ban had expired as of today and that drilling is now allowed within 3 miles of American coastline except for West coast of Florida.

    Haslam: Didn’t hear Cooper state what Obama’s position was. Reiterated McCain’s position of drilling as a partial requirement for energy security.

  11. On the DREAM Act

    Haslam: Admitted that he was unable to find McCain’s position on this issue and turned the floor over to Coop, who said, “He supports it.” Said he finds it’s better to admit it when one doesn’t know the answer to a question.

    Cooper: Explained the bill, which offers a path to higher education for the children of illegal immigrants. Said McCain’s support for this bill, likely to be lost as his “maverick” status fades in the presidential race, sets him apart from his party. Called it a “question of elemental fairness to young people.”

  12. On schools

    Cooper: Pointed out that until recently, 95% of education policy was state/local. Referenced some of the “stupid rules” of No Child Left Behind.

    Haslam: Generalized the notion that the more government is local, the better it is.

  13. On Islam

    Haslam: Recommended avoiding a “broad paintbrush.”

    Cooper: Called Islam a “completely legitimate” religion. Compared characterizing terrorists as “Islamic extremists” with characterizing the KKK as “Baptist extremists” or “Church of Christ extremists.” Referenced Clausewitz’s first rule of war: “understand the enemy.”

  14. On the role of faith in public life

    Cooper: Against state-based religion, as well as discriminating on the basis of religion. Cited Romney’s Mormonism, a “perfectly legitimate faith,” but that contributed to Romney’s loss because of intolerance among conservative Christians.

    Haslam: “Faith should be welcome in the public square.”

In closing, Haslam advocated trust in what someone has done over what someone says. Coop ended with, “Once every few generations…” and issued a call to young people that was already underway.

The questions were impressive, revealing a level of student engagement far surpassing my own and that of most of my peers at that age. I heard questions from MBA, Harpeth Hall, McGavock, Maplewood, and St. Cecilia.

In my opinion, Haslam and Cooper represent the best each party has to offer in Tennessee. Each is likable and thoughtful and unlikely (in my experiences with each thus far) to dodge questions and replace them with careful messaging. Both men are as close to candid as modern politics allows. Each acquitted himself well and gave a thorough and thoughtful presentation of contrasting ideas that help to illustrate the difference in Democratic and Republican ideologies without the bluster and negativity so common on television. For students interested in politics and policy, this served as a great introduction.

Seigenthaler, whose moderation was mostly confined to giving a gravelly cadence of wisdom to the enthusiastically earnest words of Nashville youth, paused the debate at one point to note the civility, especially in contrast with the national version of this debate that is unfolding. At the end, he expressed his “profound honor” to be in the company of “young men” such as these (Haslam and Coop) and praised the “ingenious idea” of Brad Gioia, headmaster of MBA.

Several of the mayor’s staff and the mayor himself showed up to support the engagement of the Youth Council. Chris Henson (interim Director of Schools) and Alan Coverstone (member, Board of Education) were also present. Alan teaches and is an administrator at MBA.

I’m hopeful that we’ll get the opportunity to speak with Mayor Haslam on the show at some point if he’ll accept.

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