So this has been quite a week for politics in Tennessee. First, news broke that long-serving West Tennessee congressman John Tanner would not seek re-election in 2010. Almost immediately after that announcement, state senator Roy Herron, who had been doing quite well seeking the Democratic gubernatorial primary nod, announced that he would instead seek the Democratic congressional primary nod in the 8th congressional district. A day later, Ward Cammack announces his withdrawal from the Democratic gubernatorial contest, reducing the number of announced candidates from 5 to 3.
Let’s play political pick up sticks:
Congressman Roy Herron
The first big question is: Why did Roy Herron switch races? Based on the political winds blowing in Tennessee, Phil Bredesen’s unprecedented 95-county sweep was an anomaly unlikely to be repeated by a Democrat for a generation or more (or, probably, any politician). A statewide win for a Democrat in a mid-term election year likely to favor, at least congressionally, the party in opposition to the President would be a hard-fought coup. Especially looking at the fundraising breakdown by party. So for Herron, winning the governor’s mansion, even should he win the Democratic primary, would be difficult. But let’s say that he is, in fact, the frontrunner in Tennessee’s fightin’ 8th. How could he possibly hold the seat as a freshman congressman after the Republican-controlled General Assembly redraws the districts to transform our 5-4 Democratic-majority congressional delegation to a likely 7-2 Republican-majority congressional delegation?
Possible answers:
- Herron had polling showing that there was no way in hell a Democrat could win the governor’s race, or possibly that he in particular had no way in hell of beating a generic Republican.
- Herron had polling showing that, actually, despite his public organizing prowess, he was getting thumped in terms of the Democratic primary.
- Herron had polling showing that he had wanted that congressional seat ever since he was a little boy.
- Herron somehow wound up in a deal with friends on the other side of the aisle whereby his district wouldn’t get too badly redrawn, giving him a fighting chance of keeping the seat for a decade.
- Herron had polling from before any other race that demonstrated that his state senate seat was no safer than Tanner’s congressional seat or he knows that he would’ve drawn a stronger challenger than Fincher for his own seat.
Honestly, I can’t see how a long-term view that suggests that less than a single term could possibly be appealing to a state senator in a seat that is assumed to be safe. Is 2 years in Congress better than 4 (or) more years in the state senate? Can Herron somehow become a rare Tanner-like figure who is a legendary Southern Democrat perceived as independent-minded and authentic in a mostly rural part of the state? We probably won’t know the answer till 2012, should Herron best Stephen Fincher, darling of the NRCC. Regardless, I fully expect Herron to emerge as the Democratic frontrunner, even if other Democrats (not named Lowe Finney) emerge to fight in a primary.
Side bet for political poker players: Did Herron and McWherter discuss the Tanner seat? Did each prefer the race he’s now conclusively in? I.e., Herron preferred the Tanner race and McWherter preferred the gubernatorial race?
The Governor’s Club
Herron’s departure lets the other son of Dresden, Mike McWherter, shore up his Northwest Tennessee base. Some have suggested that it advantages Jim Kyle, too, but I don’t see that. The big question will be the fight among all three of McWherter, Kyle, and McMillan for Middle Tennessee supporters, where Herron had a broad base of support, and McWherter just fired a loud opening shot.
Cammack’s departure… well, it’s unlikely to have a meaningful impact. Unless, I suppose, one of the remaining three finds a way to extend Bredesen’s legacy in making Tennessee a green technology center and generally becoming a green policy technocratic candidate.
I hadn’t predicted that the Democratic primary would’ve been particularly brutal with 5 candidates, at least nowhere nearly as brutal as the Republican primary has been and will be. And that’s in part because the Republicans feel the need to perpetually seek Truth in Conservatism, whereas the Democrats have presented as relatively un-bold pragmatists, with frontrunners McWherter (gays) and Herron (God, guns) anchoring some socially conservative points but otherwise generally hoping their ability to connect with a base was likely to determine a winner. I shudder, actually, to think what the general election might look like without Herron, as he was a forceful floor speaker who was probably the most unafraid to take on progressive causes strategically and with charisma. Kyle has no problem on the attack (“Kurita.” “Who?”), so that might be fun, but I’m still waiting for a grand populist (or otherwise) outburst from one of the Democratic contenders that makes running for governor as a Democrat seem like it’s not only fun but also the right thing to do. Otherwise, Bill Haslam, coasting calmly above the wingnut fray, will likely resonate more genuinely with Tennessee voters angling for another Bredesen (a pragmatic administrator coming from a recent background of municipal executive experience) and not disrupt my original prophecy.
Freddie,
I suggest that the key is remembering that the only vital election for Democrats is the one for Speaker in 2011. If they can win enough seats in the House to pick the Speaker, they can prevent the Republicans from controling redistricting. That is more important than who becomes Governor or Congressman or any other office because it will determine Tennessee politics for 20 years or more.
My contention has been that the legislative Democrats, who understand that the Legislature is where the money and power are, think McWherter is the best candidate for the Democrats to win back the voters who either switched to Republican or who stayed home in 2008 because of Obama. A McWherter candidacy would give Democrats a shot at regaining enough seats to elect the Speaker.
Jim Kyle would be a stronger candidate in November if winning the Governorship were the issue. But he would be a disaster in the districts that the Democrats can win. Kyle is too liberal for Democratic voters in Rutherford and Robertson and similar counties.
[...] » Re-calibrating Projections for 2010 in TennesseePosted 9 hours [...]
Mark, is that just because a Democratic Speaker would control appointments to the redistricting committee? I personally still see retaking the House as unlikely for Democrats.
I agree with you about conventional wisdom regarding McWherter’s candidacy, but I also think other types of candidacy could work better on the ground than establishment rainmakers believe.
Freddie,
A Democratic Speaker would mean that there is a Democratic Majority in the House. Such a majority would NEVER pass the sort of redistricting plan that the Republican Senate would want. Look at the 1991 redistricting when the Democrats combined 12 Republican seats into 6 districts beause they controled both Houses. In 2011 the Republicans could achieve even greater results by drawing the lines. We could get six Congressional seats, 22 or 23 Senate seats and over 60 House seats.
The impact of that sort of redistricting would be historic. Consider one small example. Traditionally the Democrats control of the Legislature has allowed their caucus to dominate contributions from lobbyists and to get more contributions from business than might be expected since even the largest businesses need help from the Legislature. Republicans at the state level have been more reliant business groups and wealthy donors.
As the Republicans have gained power in the Legislature, the PAC funding has been shifting. Give the Republicans solid majorities in both Houses and the PACs will shift heavily to the Republicans. Even unions and other liberal allies will start looking for love in Republican places, so to speak.
That will force the Democrats to rely more on ideologically motivated big donors, probbly moving the party farther left. Which may or may not be good for the party.
[...] O’Connell wrote today about Roy Herron throwing his hat into the congressional race and I do think it’s because he always wanted to run for the 8th. It’s been pretty much [...]
Mark is right here, that’s exactly what the Republicans will do if they control of the state House and put in a Mumpower-esque speaker. That’s why it’s the big enchilada, more so than the Governor’s race.
Haslam is nothing more than the GOP version of Bredesen, frustrating their base as much as Bredesen has frustrated ours.
Mark, I’ll admit to a limited understanding of the mechanics of redistricting. I had thought you had to have a combined majority of both chambers for some reason. If there’s a guide to the process for non-local jurisdictions, I haven’t found it yet.
bredeson taking all 95 counties is more an indictment of our education system and lack of civic pride than any virtue phil has demonstrated.
LWC,
“Mark is right here,”
Here, there, everywhere. Everyone needs a hobby.
We have had excellent teachers over the past 40 years at the art of redistricting.
Freddie,
Like other legislation, the House will draw up a redistricting bill and the Senate will draw up a redistricting bill. If the final versions differ, they will have to reconcile them.
The major vote that the House and Senate take together is the election of the Constitutional Officers. But redistricting is actually just like almost any other bill, just more important than most.
I thought I had read somewhere arcana that control of the redistricting process was not as simple as a majority in either chamber.
The final bill needs majorities in both chambers. It is never simple because the Senate and the House have interesting internal agendas. And then there is Congressional redistricting which the TN Legislature also decides but which involves them making choices that impact powerful Congressmen.