LIBERADIO(!)

We’re still a ways off from the 2010 partisan primaries for the gubernatorial race in Tennessee, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t walk through the stables and size up what the horserace will look like.

For today, I’m going to size up the Democratic field. We’ll know the final field in April, when filing forms are due, but right now we have 5 announced Democratic candidates:

• Ward Cammack
• Roy Herron
• Jim Kyle
• Kim McMillan
• Mike McWherter

There they are in alphabetical order. Now I’m going to review the campaigns in likelihood of primary victory, from least to greatest.

Ward Cammack got an early start and seemed to impress several progressive politicos with his technocratic attention to green issues, which include detailed policy positions rather than just fluff about his being a “green” candidate. Unfortunately, staffing issues made public and an unwillingness to commit to self-fund coupled with a past history of financially backing Republicans mean Cammack’s campaign has probably already peaked with Democratic primary voters. I doubt Tennessee will ever see another political anomaly like Phil Bredesen. As much as Cammack would like to be one, he simply ain’t. Don’t hold your breath waiting for any of the other candidates to subject themselves to a Stacey Campfield interview.

Jim Kyle put paid to Rosalind Kurita, the thorn in his legislative side that kept him from his dream of becoming lieutenant governor. Even had his dream been realized, though, it would’ve been short lived based on the Republican tide that swept the state senate in 2008. But getting into the game last when there’s no great-stakes political issue to serve as a point of distinction (all three legislators in the race at one point supported an income tax during their legislative careers) is probably going to leave Kyle toward the back of the pack. Early Democratic dollars already have already chased other candidates, and Kyle likely pissed off at least part of a demographic constituency that will now drift to…

Kim McMillan, though uninspiring on the stump, is the one legislative candidate with the benefit of post-legislative executive experience in the Bredesen administration. One wonders, though, why so many Bredesen people flocked so quickly to the McWherter campaign. A cynic might suspect it was the money. McMillan, too, lost a high-profile staffer (causing him to leave the state, in fact). But she has a built-in advantage: women. Republicans have earned some attention statewide for having a variety of high-profile female officeholders. McMillan offers Tennessee women the opportunity to vote for the first woman governor in state history. A built-in constituency should let McMillan pass Kyle but, based on the power of money in politics, probably won’t let her compete on even footing with legacy and organization.

Mike McWherter, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to have much to trade in politically other than being “Ned Ray’s boy,” a descriptor one is likely to overhear at Democratic functions where a previous generation of handlers is on hand to introduce the junior variety around. From being unfamiliar with his party’s President’s name to unnecessarily opining on adoption by gay couples, Mike has already cut off support from a full wing of primary voters, unwise in a broad field where no one is actively courting them but neither is any one seeking to piss them off. There have already been a few remarks about his gun-shyness in last cycle’s U.S. Senate race against Lamar! I suspect there will be a lot of Democrats across the state who wind up saying something nice to Mike’s father while pulling the lever for one of his opponents. Still, those who remember Ned Ray as fondly as many remember Bill Clinton might pay homage one more time. The former governor is a legend of Tennessee Democratic politics, and the power of political legacy in Tennessee can’t be completely discounted.

In this field, though, Roy Herron is the natural winner on the stump. Also, his reputation as a micromanager actually bodes well for an executive position. If he needs to delegate more effectively, he can worry about it after his army of volunteers–visible at every Democratic party function since Jackson Day–disbands after the campaign. Clearly comfortable with both the law and religion (to the point where he wrote a book about it), he’ll be somewhat difficult to out-God. And co-chairing the Broadband Task Force gives him technocratic cred competitive with Cammack’s, especially with his focus on the spread of technology access to the next generation of Tennesseans. In the most recent session, he spoke out forcefully on a number of progressive issues. In Middle Tennessee, I’ve noticed that people from across the Democratic spectrum have lined up behind Herron. Herron’s heel, though, will be his campaign’s comfort with stretching the truth (reinforcing a subtle meme about preacher-lawyer-politicians) on fundraising and an early messaging on labor that might let the faithful in that important Democratic machine operate the machinery for various of the competition. If Herron’s demonstrated organization so far, though, turns out to be more than a for-show Howard Dean fly-in, and he doesn’t back down on the stump, getting out the vote will be easier for him in the hinterlands, likely giving him enough margin for victory.

In the it-came-from-Dresden scenario, no amount of Ned Ray money or suction (with, for instance, Clinton at Jackson Day) is going to allow Mike, even with a crew of Bredesen acolytes at his beck and call, to strong-arm himself into pole position.

The question will be whether the lawyer-preacher-politician can do better against Haslam than Bryson did against Bredesen. And I’ve already laid out a little bit of my thinking on the answer to that question.

I should be clear that this is my analysis of the race at this point in the game. It is not an endorsement of any candidate. We expect to extend interview invitations to all 5 Democratic candidates as primary day draws nearer. Y’know… next year.