2008 Presidential Scorecard

Posted by Freddie on January 22, 2007 under Uncategorized |

So 2007 is barely underway, and the field is already crowded with contenders for the presidency in 2008. With a slew of announcements this past week alone, we wanted to present a list of where people stand with a bit of prognostication.

Based on the current who’s who, among Democrats, I predict that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will occupy the limelight of the Democratic stage for the duration of the campaign. The media is already falling all over itself to scrutinize their every interaction in the Senate, and they seem to be playing right along by sponsoring point-counterpoint legislation. John Edwards’s official announcement got sadly (in two regards) Gerald Forded, and he’s going to be playing catchup for the rest of the pre-primary season. Tom Vilsack did what he had to do by announcing early and then doing everything right until the luminaries got into the race. He did well on his Daily Show appearance, which is a good thing. But he and Bill Richardson and Joe Biden are all going to be fighting for the scraps left on the table by the two new faces and the one has-been. Dennis Kucinich will once again be relegated to also-ran status, much to his chagrin and to the chagrin of the far-left, which has little to no sway over (Bill) Clinton’s Democrats, very unlike the far-right, to which all serious Republican candidates will pay serious lip service. John Kerry may make a cameo to help his friends in the late night comic community.

Winner: Hillary Clinton (as much as I hate to say it…)
Freddie’s pick: Tom Vilsack

I think the Democrats need to nominate a governor. Their track record as an opposition party in the Senate during the Bush administration has been pathetic, and that includes the track record of Senator Clinton. My guess is that, based on skeletons in his closet, Bill Richardson can’t play ball in the big leagues, whereas Vilsack’s down-home, progressive-centrist appeal is shored up by his pragmatic record of governance in Iowa. Executive experience is exactly what Democrats need, and Vilsack just delivered a completely Democratic legislature to Iowans.

Among Republicans, I think John McCain will wind up being the safe choice. His military past and muscular mouthpiece present will solidify his support among red-meat Republicans, and his pro-life rhetoric and kowtowing will possibly bring the James Dobsons and Pat Robertsons into line without too much trouble because there’s no way they’ll back social liberal Giuliani or Mormon Romney. Romney will present a surprisingly tough thorn to McCain’s side. He’s a ruthlessly skillful campaigner with a lot of charisma and a proven ability to win where he shouldn’t (Massachusetts, although a re-election bid would’ve failed). Giuliani, though revered in Manhattan and polling well, will probably not have the prowess it takes to compete on a national stage with McCain and Romney. McCain will out-gravitas Giuliani, and Romney will out-fundraise him. Surprisingly, though, the Republicans don’t really have a deep bench for 2008. They’ve got a number of good governors or former governors who could make a go, but Romney is among the worst of them at actual relevant governance, and the others don’t have a national stage. Sam Brownback might soak up some support from the religious right, but their period in the ascendancy will end during the dusk of the Bush administration. Evangelical leaders will place a safer bet.

Winner: John McCain
Freddie’s pick: John McCain

I think the Republicans need a reformer to clean up the mess of the Bush era. McCain has been a reform-minded politician ever since he got his own political clock cleaned by financial shenanigans in the 1980s. Though he’s too conservative for my taste, he’s a campaign finance reformer and actually pays attention to the science of global warming. He is also a budget hawk, which will mean that the unfortunate largesse of the Bush administration (yes to corporate welfare, no to social programs) will come to an end.

And now, on to the Liberadio(!) 2008 Presidential Scorecard!