An Anniversary with Little to Celebrate

Posted by Freddie on March 19, 2007 under Uncategorized |

We spent a healthy portion of today’s show discussing the 4th anniversary of the Iraq War. ABC News is kicking off a week of coverage called “Iraq: Where Things Stand”. As part of the kick-off, they have an extensive write-up of an extensive poll that has been conducted in Iraq. I’m going to present some items below that struck me from reading it, but I encourage you to read the write-up (which includes a link to the even longer full report) in its entirety. Trust me: I’m not cherry-picking. This report does not paint a pretty picture of life on the ground or popular sentiment in Iraq.

15-second summary:

a minority of Iraqis think that life is better now than it was under Saddam Hussein
a plurality of Iraqis think that the U.S. is to blame for the continued violence
a majority of Iraqis think it is acceptable to attack U.S. forces

The Good

In perhaps the most positive result in this poll — certainly one of the few — a desire for political unity remains. Fifty-eight percent say Iraq should continue as a single, unified country with a central government in Baghdad. That’s declined, though, from 79 percent in 2004 and 70 percent in 2005.

While it doesn’t mitigate Iraq’s troubles, there has been some progress. Median household incomes have advanced from $150 per month in 2004 to $204 in 2005 and $286 now. Employment is up sharply. So is possession of consumer goods: Nearly every household in Iraq now has a satellite dish and a radio; nine in 10 have a cell phone, up from a mere 6 percent in 2004.

The Bad

More than half of Iraqis, 53 percent, have a close friend or relative who’s been hurt or killed in the current violence. One in six says someone in their own household has been harmed. Eighty-six percent worry about a loved one being hurt; two-thirds worry deeply. Huge numbers limit their daily activities to minimize risk. Seven in 10 report multiple signs of traumatic stress.

In November 2005, 63 percent of Iraqis felt very safe in their neighborhoods. Today just 26 percent say the same. One in three doesn’t feel safe at all. In Baghdad, home to a fifth of the country’s population, that skyrockets: Eighty-four percent feel entirely unsafe.

In 2005, despite the difficulties in their country, 71 percent of Iraqis said their own lives were going well. Today that’s been all but halved, to 39 percent. In 2005, two-thirds expected their lives to improve over the coming year. Now just 35 percent see better days ahead.

In an equally dramatic reversal, majorities now give negative ratings to each of more than a dozen essential aspects of daily life — jobs, schools, power and fuel supply, medical care and many more. In late 2005, for instance, 54 percent said their power supply was inadequate or nonexistent; now that’s swelled to 88 percent. And in 2005 just 30 percent rated their economic situation negatively. Today that’s more than doubled, to 64 percent.

The Ugly

The number of Iraqis who call it “acceptable” to attack U.S. and coalition forces, 17 percent in early 2004, has tripled to 51 percent now, led by near unanimity among Sunni Arabs. And 78 percent of Iraqis now oppose the presence of U.S. forces on their soil, though far fewer favor an immediate pullout.

Given all this, for the first time since the 2003 war, fewer than half of Iraqis, 42 percent, say life is better now than it was under Saddam Hussein, whose security forces are said to have murdered more than a million Iraqis.

Asked whom they blame most for the current violence in Iraq, far and away the most common answer — voiced by four in 10 Iraqis — is either U.S. and coalition forces (31 percent), or George W. Bush personally (nine percent). Al Qaeda and foreign jihadi fighters are cited by 18 percent (far more by Shiites and Kurds than by Sunnis).

The End

Interestingly, for all the negative changes in attitudes and experience, one result has remained essentially stable: Iraqis still divide, now by 48-52 percent, over whether the United States was right or wrong to invade in spring 2003.

Despite the ambivalence of Iraqis on whether or not our aggressive foreign policy was a good idea, I certainly think it was not. Maybe the answer to Fukuyama’s question wasn’t ready to be answered in 1992, or even 2002. But I’m hoping the lesson that the global community — of which we are a part — learns from the mistake of Iraq is that we are far enough along in history that foreign policy goals should not be pursued with force. Leave that to foreign policy responses. Now, as to the question of Iraq? I’ll leave that to the Iraq Study Group…